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Part 3: Pattern of Global Market Development
In this section, we develop estimates of how the global market for ballast water treatment
systems is likely to develop through 2020. These estimates are based on the following
assumptions: (1) the IMO Convention will be ratified in 2011, and be enforced by IMO member
nations one year later, starting in 2012; (2) upon ratification, vessels will begin to comply with
IMO BW treatment guidelines starting in 2011; and (3) all ships required to comply with IMO
regulations will comply by proposed IMO deadlines. We then estimated that the percentage of
ships in each IMO designated BW capacity category that will comply each year prior to the
proposed IMO deadline will be as shown in Table 9 until all ships in all categories have
complied.
Table 9. Assumed compliance scheduling
BW Capacity
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
<1,500 m
3
5%
10%
10%
25%
50%
1,500 - 5,000 m
3
15%
35%
50%
0%
0%
>5,000 m
3
5%
10%
10%
25%
50%
Our estimates of the numbers of vessels built in 2009 or before are based Lloyd's Fairplay
Database, November 2009. The estimated numbers of vessels built from 2010 through 2020 are
based on the average number of new vessels delivered per year from 2005 through 2009
(datasource: Lloyd's Fairplay Database, November 2009).